Pitches, Bowling Tools and Reserves β Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided
Just 48 hours to go.
England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.
With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.
Itβs challenging to make runs, isn't it?
Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.
A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.
Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.
Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.
A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.
Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test cricket is about solving problems.
When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.
If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.
What's going on with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.
Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.
From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.
The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.
On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.
Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.
Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.
The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.
On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong β The tourists should take heed.
Tough at the top
Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.
No more.
Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.
Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.
His average rises when the bowling gets faster.
By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.
Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.
Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.
It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.
Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.
Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.
Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior β spin.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.
In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.
Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.
Recall the potency of pace bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.
During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.
Favorable Conditions?
The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.
The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.
England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.
Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.
The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca β scene of many an England humbling β but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.
The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.
The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.
Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.
In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.
The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game β against India last year.
Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.
The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The issue in {day-night matches|
